Educational market-cycle tool

Nifty 50 TRI · 1 January 2000 – 31 December 2025 · annual steps

Historical SWP Simulator

See how a systematic withdrawal plan could have behaved through actual historical market cycles — leftover corpus after withdrawals, not a smoothed “growth minus SWP” rate.

Same long-term return. Different market journey. Different leftover corpus.

Investment inputs

Change any field — the historical path updates immediately.

Initial withdrawal rate10.00%

Path used: 1 January 2003 → 31 December 2022 · 20 calendar years of Nifty 50 TRI. Each year is 31 Dec → 31 Dec. Return is applied first, then the SWP is assumed on 31 December. Dataset last complete year: 31 December 2025. Annual returns cannot reproduce intra-year crashes and recoveries.

Withdrawal strategy

Advanced options — inflation

Results dashboard

This page is for leftover corpus after withdrawals on a historical path — not a live market feed, and not growth rate minus withdrawal rate.

1 January 200331 December 2022. Each year: TRI applied, then withdrawal assumed on 31 December. Not a monthly backtest.

Initial investment

₹50 lakh

₹50,00,000

Initial withdrawal rate

10.00%

Total withdrawn

₹1 crore

₹1,00,00,000

Total growth / loss

₹7.31 crore

₹7,31,21,325

Final corpus

₹6.81 crore

₹6,81,21,325

Corpus survival

Survived

Survived the full 20-year simulation

Lowest corpus

₹50 lakh

₹50,00,000

Maximum drawdown

−54.2%

From a prior peak, ₹1,39,43,001

Nifty 50 TRI CAGR

+16.7%

Market path, including dividends

Leftover corpus CAGR

+14.0%

Final ÷ initial only — ignores income taken

Investor XIRR

+18.3%

Pre-tax — no tax on withdrawals

Assumed dates

Every figure on this page uses these dates

Simulation window
1 January 2003 → 31 December 2022

Inclusive calendar years. Opening corpus is treated as invested on 1 January of the start year.

Each market year
Last trading day of December → next 31 December

One annual TRI step. Intra-year crashes (for example March 2020) are not timed.

Return, then withdrawal
Assumed 31 December 2003–2022

The full calendar-year TRI is applied first. The SWP for that year is then deducted, as if taken at year-end.

Dataset last complete year
31 December 2025

2026 is not a finished calendar year and is excluded. Periods cannot run past this date.

SWP is assumed to begin on 31 December 2003 — the same date as the first year’s return.

Nifty 50 levels behind TRI

How much the Nifty was in this window

TRI is not a separate market. It is the same Nifty 50 stocks, with dividends reinvested. The price index tells you the headline level; TRI is that price path plus dividends.

Nifty 50 on 31 Dec 2002

1,093.50

Opening level for this path

Nifty 50 on 31 Dec 2022

18,105.30

Closing level for this path

Price multiple

16.56×

Price CAGR +15.1%

TRI CAGR

+16.7%

Dividends add about 1.6% a year versus price

Why two TRI source windows

The NSE Whitepaper TRI table used here is published from 2005. Earlier years use an NSE-based total-return compilation. The price index is the same Nifty 50 in both windows.

2000–2004

1,480.45 (31 Dec 1999)2,080.50 (31 Dec 2004)

1.41× on price · price CAGR +7.0% · TRI CAGR +9.1%

NSE-based total-return compilation (dividends included). Official Whitepaper TRI table in this app starts 2005, so these five years use the earlier TRI series.

2005–2025

2,080.50 (31 Dec 2004)26,129.60 (31 Dec 2025)

12.56× on price · price CAGR +12.8% · TRI CAGR +14.2%

NSE Indices Limited, Nifty 50 Whitepaper 2026 (calendar-year TRI in INR).

CAGR with withdrawals

SWP does not raise the market’s CAGR

Nifty 50 price CAGR

+15.1%

Headline index, no dividends

Nifty 50 TRI CAGR

+16.7%

Used in this simulation — same for every SWP rule

Leftover corpus CAGR

+14.0%

(final ÷ initial) only — ignores income taken

Investor XIRR

+18.3%

Pre-tax — no tax on withdrawals

Nifty 50 TRI CAGR for 2003–2022 is +16.7%. That number is the same for every withdrawal rule — it is the index journey, including reinvested dividends. The leftover-corpus CAGR (+14.0%) is below the market TRI CAGR (+16.7%) because withdrawals took money off the table — that is normal, not a market underperformance. Your investor XIRR — initial outlay on 1 January 2003, each year’s actual withdrawal on 31 December, leftover on 31 December 2022 — is +18.3%. XIRR is above TRI CAGR in this window because more of the withdrawals sat after strong years, so a larger corpus had already compounded. That XIRR assumes every withdrawal is received in full, with no tax. If you had never withdrawn, the same TRI path would have grown the starting corpus to ₹10.9 crore. The gap between that figure and your leftover corpus is the income you took, plus the sequence effect of taking it.

XIRR and leftover CAGR can mislead. No tax is taken off withdrawals, and leftover CAGR ignores income already taken. Read leftover corpus first.

If leftover CAGR looks “better” after Pause or Reduce than Fixed, that is because you took less income — not because SWP raised the market’s return. Buy-and-hold on this same TRI path would have been ₹10.9 crore. Your leftover is the remainder after income.

Corpus journey

Closing corpus after each calendar year’s return and withdrawal (1 January 200331 December 2022). SWP begins in 2003.

Negative market years are marked on the return chart. The corpus line already reflects those years through the sequence of returns.

Market return

Nifty 50 TRI calendar-year return (31 Dec → 31 Dec). Green is positive, red is negative.

Withdrawal flexibility

What flexibility would have changed

Your selected historical period included 3 negative-return years. You ran a Fixed SWP, so planned withdrawals continued in those years. The comparison below shows how pausing or reducing withdrawals would have changed income received and the ending corpus in this same historical sequence. Flexible strategies are not automatically better — they trade income in difficult years for a different portfolio path.

Sequence of returns

Sequence of returns matters

Best market year

2009

+77.6%

Worst market year

2008

−51.3%

Negative years

3

calendar years below 0%

Strong years

7

returns above +30%

TRI CAGR

+16.7%

Leftover +14.0%

Your selected period (2003–2022) compounded at +16.7% a year, but that figure is a summary of a very uneven journey. The best calendar year was 2009 (+77.6%) and the worst was 2008 (−51.3%). The path included 3 negative-return years and 7 years above +30%. For an investor withdrawing regularly, the timing of those drawdowns matters as much as the long-term average. A positive calendar-year return also does not mean the market rose smoothly throughout the year.

Year-by-year market story

Each row is one calendar year. Nifty 50 close is the price index on the last trading day of December. Price % is that close versus the previous 31 December. TRI % is the total-return figure used for growth (price plus dividends). Withdrawal is assumed on 31 December after that TRI.

Sim yrYear (31 Dec)Nifty 50Price %TRI %Market storyOpeningGrowthPlannedActualRule appliedClosing
120031,879.75+71.9%+76.6%Economic recovery, improving sentiment and strong market momentum triggered an extraordinary bull run.₹50,00,000₹38,30,500₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹83,30,500
220042,080.50+10.7%+13.0%A sharp May election shock was followed by a recovery as the new government provided policy continuity.₹83,30,500₹10,82,965₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹89,13,465
320052,836.55+36.3%+39.3%Strong corporate earnings and capital inflows powered a broad-based bull market.₹89,13,465₹35,02,992₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹1,19,16,457
420063,966.40+39.8%+41.9%A May global rate-hike sell-off was absorbed; growth and liquidity still delivered a powerful year.₹1,19,16,457₹49,92,995₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹1,64,09,452
520076,138.60+54.8%+56.8%Strong liquidity and optimism pushed markets sharply higher into a cycle peak.₹1,64,09,452₹93,20,569₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,52,30,021
620082,959.15−51.8%−51.3%The global financial crisis caused one of the worst market crashes in modern history.₹2,52,30,021−₹1,29,43,001₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹1,17,87,020
720095,201.05+75.8%+77.6%Massive global stimulus and improving confidence produced a spectacular recovery.₹1,17,87,020₹91,46,728₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,04,33,748
820106,134.50+17.9%+19.2%The post-crisis rebound continued, though European debt worries capped the pace of gains.₹2,04,33,748₹39,23,280₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,38,57,027
920114,624.30−24.6%−23.8%European sovereign-debt stress and domestic policy uncertainty produced a deep correction.₹2,38,57,027−₹56,77,973₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹1,76,79,055
1020125,905.10+27.7%+29.4%Policy-reform hopes and global liquidity helped Indian equities rebound strongly.₹1,76,79,055₹51,97,642₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,23,76,697
1120136,304.00+6.8%+8.1%The US taper tantrum and rupee stress created sharp intra-year swings, yet the year closed positive.₹2,23,76,697₹18,12,512₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,36,89,210
1220148,282.70+31.4%+32.9%A decisive general-election result and reform optimism drove a strong bull market.₹2,36,89,210₹77,93,750₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹3,09,82,959
1320157,946.35−4.1%−3.0%Global risk-off after the yuan devaluation left the calendar year modestly negative.₹3,09,82,959−₹9,29,489₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹2,95,53,471
1420168,185.80+3.0%+4.4%Demonetisation and a muted earnings cycle produced a low-single-digit year.₹2,95,53,471₹13,00,353₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹3,03,53,823
15201710,530.70+28.6%+30.3%Synchronised global growth and domestic inflows fuelled a strong advance.₹3,03,53,823₹91,97,208₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹3,90,51,032
16201810,862.55+3.2%+4.6%Trade-war fears and the IL&FS credit shock kept calendar-year returns muted.₹3,90,51,032₹17,96,347₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹4,03,47,379
17201912,168.45+12.0%+13.5%Markets climbed on liquidity and large-cap leadership despite a slowing economy.₹4,03,47,379₹54,46,896₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹4,52,94,276
18202013,981.75+14.9%+16.1%COVID caused a historic crash followed by a powerful recovery; the positive annual return hides severe intra-year volatility.₹4,52,94,276₹72,92,378₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹5,20,86,654
19202117,354.05+24.1%+25.6%Vaccine rollout and a liquidity-fuelled rally extended the post-COVID bull market.₹5,20,86,654₹1,33,34,183₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹6,49,20,837
20202218,105.30+4.3%+5.7%The Ukraine war, inflation and aggressive rate hikes produced a choppy, modestly positive year.₹6,49,20,837₹37,00,488₹5,00,000₹5,00,000Fixed SWP₹6,81,21,325

Market journey timeline

1 January 200331 December 2022. Each marker is one 31 December close. The arrows are the sequence an SWP investor actually lived through — not a smoothed average.

  1. 200331 Dec

    TRI +76.6%

    🔥 Extraordinary Bull Run

    Extraordinary bull run

    Economic recovery, improving sentiment and strong market momentum triggered an extraordinary bull run.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹83,30,500

  2. 200431 Dec

    TRI +13.0%

    Positive Year

    Election shock, then recovery

    A sharp May election shock was followed by a recovery as the new government provided policy continuity.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹89,13,465

  3. 200531 Dec

    TRI +39.3%

    📈 Strong Advance

    Earnings-led bull market

    Strong corporate earnings and capital inflows powered a broad-based bull market.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹1,19,16,457

  4. 200631 Dec

    TRI +41.9%

    🔥 Major Bull Market

    Liquidity boom

    A May global rate-hike sell-off was absorbed; growth and liquidity still delivered a powerful year.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹1,64,09,452

  5. 200731 Dec

    TRI +56.8%

    🔥 Major Bull Market

    Major bull market

    Strong liquidity and optimism pushed markets sharply higher into a cycle peak.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,52,30,021

  6. 200831 Dec

    TRI −51.3%

    💥 Global Financial Crisis

    Global financial crisis

    The global financial crisis caused one of the worst market crashes in modern history.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹1,17,87,020

  7. 200931 Dec

    TRI +77.6%

    🚀 Historic Recovery

    Historic recovery

    Massive global stimulus and improving confidence produced a spectacular recovery.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,04,33,748

  8. 201031 Dec

    TRI +19.2%

    Positive Year

    Recovery continues

    The post-crisis rebound continued, though European debt worries capped the pace of gains.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,38,57,027

  9. 201131 Dec

    TRI −23.8%

    📉 Deep Correction

    Euro-debt correction

    European sovereign-debt stress and domestic policy uncertainty produced a deep correction.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹1,76,79,055

  10. 201231 Dec

    TRI +29.4%

    Positive Year

    Policy-hope rebound

    Policy-reform hopes and global liquidity helped Indian equities rebound strongly.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,23,76,697

  11. 201331 Dec

    TRI +8.1%

    Positive Year

    Taper tantrum year

    The US taper tantrum and rupee stress created sharp intra-year swings, yet the year closed positive.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,36,89,210

  12. 201431 Dec

    TRI +32.9%

    📈 Election Bull Market

    Election bull market

    A decisive general-election result and reform optimism drove a strong bull market.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹3,09,82,959

  13. 201531 Dec

    TRI −3.0%

    📉 Negative Year

    Yuan devaluation sell-off

    Global risk-off after the yuan devaluation left the calendar year modestly negative.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹2,95,53,471

  14. 201631 Dec

    TRI +4.4%

    〰️ Muted Year

    Demonetisation year

    Demonetisation and a muted earnings cycle produced a low-single-digit year.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹3,03,53,823

  15. 201731 Dec

    TRI +30.3%

    📈 Strong Advance

    Synchronised bull market

    Synchronised global growth and domestic inflows fuelled a strong advance.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹3,90,51,032

  16. 201831 Dec

    TRI +4.6%

    〰️ Muted Year

    Credit-shock year

    Trade-war fears and the IL&FS credit shock kept calendar-year returns muted.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹4,03,47,379

  17. 201931 Dec

    TRI +13.5%

    Positive Year

    Liquidity-led grind higher

    Markets climbed on liquidity and large-cap leadership despite a slowing economy.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹4,52,94,276

  18. 202031 Dec

    TRI +16.1%

    ⚠️ COVID Crash & Rebound

    COVID crash and rebound

    COVID caused a historic crash followed by a powerful recovery; the positive annual return hides severe intra-year volatility.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹5,20,86,654

  19. 202131 Dec

    TRI +25.6%

    Positive Year

    Liquidity-fuelled rally

    Vaccine rollout and a liquidity-fuelled rally extended the post-COVID bull market.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹6,49,20,837

  20. 202231 Dec

    TRI +5.7%

    〰️ Muted Year

    Inflation and rate-hike year

    The Ukraine war, inflation and aggressive rate hikes produced a choppy, modestly positive year.

    Withdrew ₹5,00,000 · closed at ₹6,81,21,325

Same market, different withdrawal rule

All three strategies are run on your exact inputs and the same historical sequence. The highlighted row is the rule you selected.

StrategyTotal withdrawnFinal corpusLowest corpusCorpus survived
Fixed SWPSelected₹1,00,00,000₹6,81,21,325₹50,00,000Yes — full period
Pause in negative years₹85,00,000₹7,52,30,844₹50,00,000Yes — full period
Reduce in negative years₹92,50,000₹7,16,76,084₹50,00,000Yes — full period

The difference between strategies is not only the amount remaining in the portfolio. Flexible strategies may also reduce income received during adverse periods. In some historical windows a pause or reduce rule leaves a larger corpus; in others the income given up is the more important result. Neither path is automatically superior.

Historical SWP capacity

Approximate maximum annual planned withdrawal that still lets the corpus survive this specific historical sequence.

The story of this path

Investment → cycle → outcome

You began this historical journey in 2003 with ₹50 lakh. The portfolio then lived through the extraordinary bull run of 2003 (+76.6%) and, over the full window to 2022, faced 3 negative-return years — including 2008, when the market returned −51.3%. The strongest calendar year was 2009 (+77.6%). Withdrawals continued at the planned amount regardless of that year’s market return. After 20 years the simulated corpus was ₹6.81 crore, and ₹1 crore had been withdrawn in total. This simulation is a reminder that the sequence of market returns can matter as much as the long-term average when money is regularly withdrawn.

Important illustration notes

This calculator is an educational illustration of leftover corpus after withdrawals on historical market-return sequences. It is not a live data feed. Historical performance does not indicate or guarantee future performance. Actual investment returns, taxes, expenses, market timing, withdrawal timing and investor behaviour may produce materially different outcomes.

SWP is not “growth rate minus withdrawal rate”. Sequence of returns and the years in which money is taken change leftover corpus even when the long-term average is unchanged. The investment journey is not smooth: a positive calendar-year return does not mean markets rose evenly through the year. This site only shows how an SWP could have behaved on past Nifty 50 TRI calendar years, and how much corpus remained after those withdrawals.

No tax is applied to withdrawals. Investor XIRR is therefore pre-tax and can overstate the cash you would keep after capital-gains tax, TDS, expense ratios or exit loads. Treat XIRR as a supporting figure, not a personal after-tax return.

Dates assumed: each calendar year runs from the last trading day of December to 31 December of that year. The starting corpus is treated as invested on 1 January of the first year. The year’s Nifty 50 TRI is applied first; the SWP is then deducted as if taken on 31 December. Dataset last complete year: 31 December 2025. 2026 is not a finished calendar year and is excluded.

Returns used here are calendar-year Nifty 50 Total Return Index figures. 2000–2004 use an NSE-based total-return compilation (Nifty 50 price 1,480.45 on 31 Dec 1999 2,080.50 on 31 Dec 2004). 2005–2025 use NSE Indices Limited, Nifty 50 Whitepaper 2026 (Nifty 50 price 2,080.50 on 31 Dec 2004 26,129.60 on 31 Dec 2025). TRI is the same Nifty 50 stocks with dividends reinvested — it is not a different market. A leftover-corpus CAGR is not a higher market return: it ignores cash already withdrawn. Pause or reduce can leave a larger leftover only because less income was taken in negative years. Annual return data does not capture intra-year volatility or the exact timing of withdrawals. 2020 is the clear example: a severe COVID crash was followed by a strong recovery, so the year finished positive even though an investor withdrawing during the crash lived through a very different path than the annual number suggests.

The model applies each year’s return and then the withdrawal, at an annual step. It does not simulate monthly cash-flows, taxes, expense ratios or rebalancing. It is not investment advice, and it does not identify a “safe” withdrawal rate.

Illustration only · 1 January 200331 December 2022 · 20 years · starting corpus ₹50,00,000